2:48 a.m. EST November 28, 2013 This year's NBA MVP Award probably will go to someone other than LeBron James. That is not because his regular season performance will be anything but utter domination, and it is not because the Miami Heat are poised for an organizational implosion.
It's because this year he doesn't have the most important criterion on his side.
Last season showed that about 51% of the variation in MVP voting could be explained by the statistical performance of players in categories like points per game, shooting percentages and team win percentage. That means that the other 49% of voting is driven by the context of each player's statistics, largely including how compelling players' story lines are. What that means in predicting an MVP is statistics don't take you the entire way; they give a pool of likely candidates.
From there, narrative takes over and ultimately makes the decision.
The last two seasons the numbers were strongly in James' favor. Whether favoriting deep statistical versatility stretched across points, rebounds, assists and shooting percentages or the comfort of a single metric such as player efficiency rating or win shares, almost any list of MVP candidates placed James at the very top. But that wasn't what won him the award.
It was stepping over a crushing NBA Finals loss and redefining himself as the embodiment of offensive and defensive versatility. It was making the Heat his own and setting the standard for a new era of lineup creativity. It was winning 27 games in a row and shaking off the ghosts of his struggles in clutch moments. Of all the possibilities, James had the best story to go along with the best numbers.
But this season it's tough to see how he can make that narrative case. The Heat appear to have lost none of their potency, but there has been a notable decline in mystery and intrigue. They have answered all the most compelling questions and all that is left is wondering when their dominance ends. James could certainly top Chris Paul, Kevin Durant or Paul George in individual statistical brilliance.
But he doesn't appear to have any MVP aces up his sleeve.
He's not going to be putting the finishing touches on an organizational transformation from laughingstock to title contender or returning a team to brilliance after a devastating injury to himself or a teammate.
