There will be new faces in Congress next year, but the number of Republicans and Democrats isn't going to change much. According to data compiled by the non-partisan Cook Political Report, there are 62 U.S. House seats
with no incumbent on the ballot — a record since 1992 — but not enough seats are forecast to change partisan hands to upset the current balance of power. House Republicans are heading in to Election Day with a 242-seat majority, and Cook projects the likeliest outcome for a zero- to five-seat gain for Democrats.
The U.S. Senate could be an even more dramatic reinforcement of the status quo. Democrats control the chamber 53-47, and Democrats are not only favored to maintain control of the chamber, but it is a "strong" possibility that the margin will not change at all, according to Reid Wilson, an election analyst for National Journal's Hotline.
For example, Republican wins in Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana would be offset by Democratic wins in Maine, Massachusetts and Indiana. If no other seats change hands, it's "game over," Wilson said, for lingering GOP hopes of a takeover.
The outcome means the next president is all but certain to face a similar, divided Congress. "There will be a check on the president, whoever it is," said Don Stewart, a top aide for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
President Obama will once again face Republicans in the House led by Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, while a President-elect Mitt Romney will be greeted by a combative Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
In a statement last week, Reid characterized it "laughable" that a Democratic Senate would help Romney move his agenda through the chamber.
"Whether we get different results in 2013 and 2014 depends entirely on whether negotiations go forward on a different basis and in a different spirit," said William Galston, a former aide in the Clinton administration and political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "I think we've learned there are only two alternatives: gridlock or compromise. There is no third alternative."
The potential for gridlock is greater than the potential for compromise, because neither party will be able to claim a mandate for their policies if the divided Congress is reinforced on Election Day, Reynolds said.
"There is no mandate, and it means that people have got to come and sit in a room and figure out what solutions there can be and will be to govern," Reynolds said. "I don't think the country has the luxury for the government to be at an endless impasse
